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Los Angeles, California, United States
The blog 'Breaking Bread' is for a civil general discussion, like you might have at the dinner table with guests. The posts 'Economics Without the B.S.' are intended for a general audience that wouldn't have to know the difference between a Phillips Curve, a Laffer Curve, or a Cole Hamels Curve. Vic Volpe was formally educated at Penn State and the University of Scranton, with major studies in History, Economics and Finance, and Business; and, is self-educated since by way of books and on-line university courses. His practical education came from sixty years of work experience in the blue-collar trades as well as a white-collar professional career -- a white-collar professional career in production and R&D. In his professional career and as a long-haul trucker, he has traveled throughout the lower forty-eight. From his professional career alone he has visited many manufacturing plants in the United States, Europe and China. He has lived in major metropolitan areas and very small towns in various parts of the United States. He served three years with the U.S. Army as an enlisted man, much of that time in Germany.

Sunday, November 17, 2024

Further comments on globalization not working; let's fix it, not abolish it.

Economics Without The B.S.**: 


[**  Double entendre intended.]


Do you think these resulted from changes to economic policy from the 1960s, to combating the inflationary ’70s, the disruption which follows with the delinking of the dollar from gold and the currency wars between the $, DM, Yen; Washington Consensus of late ’80s, Globalization taking hold by mid-’90s, and the many financial crises which follow?


 

When the Index started in 1947 they all had the same reading -- 4.6.  Twenty years later, in 1966, with an economy at peak performance:
    >  maximum output, maximum employment, maximum purchasing power;
        With over 90% industrial capacity
            * Over 100% in the auto industry, that’s counting working
                 overtime
            * When the auto industry was around 7% of GDP (more than
                 twice what it is today)
         And industrial capacity almost doubling during the decade
         The unemployment rate was around 3.5% by the end of the
             decade, with the long-term unemployment rate (those
             unemployed for over six months) at just below 5%; meaning
             that structural unemployment – those not suited for the jobs
             available – were just about non-existent. [The long-term
             unemployment rate in the 1980s/1990s floated between 10%
             and 15% in non-recessionary years; and was between 15% to
             20% in the past 25 years during non-recessionary years.]

Twenty years after that, in 1987 the Index reads:
Household Wealth – 7.5
Nominal GDP – 7.6
Real GDP – 6.0
CPI/Inflation – 6.2

Twenty years after that, in 2007, with twenty years of the “Great Moderation”, the Index reads:
Household Wealth – 8.9
Nominal GDP – 8.7
Real GDP – 6.6
CPI/Inflation – 6.8

So here we are:



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