About Me

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Los Angeles, California, United States
The blog 'Breaking Bread' is for a civil general discussion, like you might have at the dinner table with guests. The posts 'Economics Without the B.S.' are intended for a general audience that wouldn't have to know the difference between a Phillips Curve, a Laffer Curve, or a Cole Hamels Curve. Vic Volpe was formally educated at Penn State and the University of Scranton, with major studies in History, Economics and Finance, and Business; and, is self-educated since by way of books and on-line university courses. His practical education came from fifty years of work experience in the blue-collar trades as well as a white-collar professional career -- a white-collar professional career in production and R&D. In his professional career and as a long-haul trucker, he has traveled throughout the lower forty-eight. From his professional career alone he has visited many manufacturing plants in the United States, Europe and China. He has lived in major metropolitan areas and very small towns in various parts of the United States. He served three years with the U.S. Army as an enlisted man, much of that time in Germany.

Thursday, September 28, 2017

Trump's Tax Plan Effect On Trade Deficit

Trump's Tax Plan Effect On Trade Deficit



Economics Without The B.S.**: 

[**  Double entendre intended.]

Do you wonder if there is any coordination on the Trump Economic Team -- Wilbur Ross, Steve Munchin, Gary Cohn, Peter Navarro, Robert Lighthizer -- and Trump himself?

The argument should not be whether Trump's Tax Plan helps or hurts the Middle Class; it should be does it help or hurt broad-based economic growth.

If you relate the Tax Plan to Trade and our persistent trade deficit due to U.S. spending in excess of savings, and the trade deficit being a reflection of the overall economy, then the tax cuts are going to exasperate the savings/investment ratio (make it worse) with more spending and bigger deficits and a drag on economic growth -- a short-term fix with long-term detrimental consequences. If tax cuts just feed our consumption habits (like it did under Bush) instead of investment, then we are worst off. If it went toward investment then we should be better off. But where in fiscal policy is there incentives for investment?...we didn't get any with Bush and it looks questionable with Trump.

I'm curious if Peter Navarro had any input into the Trump Tax Plan, because government deficits do affect trade imbalances. Not that I'm in agreement with Navarro's point of view -- I'm not; but, he is interesting to listen to (since the 1990s). He had Trump's ear.

So what is this Economic Policy? And who is Trump going to appoint to the Fed to implement all this Economic Policy? We have several vacancies on the Board beside Yellen. Coordination??? My goodness, why would I think that? Why should Trump's Economic Policy be any more coordinated than his National Security Policy?





Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Trump's Tax Plan -- the Republican nostrum for what ails us

Trump's Tax Plan


The Republican nostrum for what ails us




Economics Without The B.S.**: 

[**  Double entendre intended.]

Tax cuts are not tax reform or tax simplification - although the Alternative Minimum Tax would go away - nor economic growth.

Tax cuts are the Republican nostrum for what ails us, but they do not have a history of bringing economic well-being. Check out JFK, Reagan, Bush (2001) tax cuts and Bush/Clinton tax increase and look at effect on revenues and economic growth. Revenues decreased in 2001 and economic growth petered out from trillion $ tax cuts in 2001. Tax cuts worked with revenues in '60s and '80s.



Want to talk about tax cuts and jobs?...We produced more jobs in '60s with workforce of 70 million than Bush 2000s with workforce of 140 million. And during '60s the Debt-to-GDP went down almost in half although we had no balanced budgets; it rose during Reagan's tax cuts; went down again during Clinton with economic growth and tax increases; and increased again under Bush in 2000s with his trillion $ tax cuts.



Want to fix economic growth?...Fix the structural problems in the real economy -- one problem is poor labor productivity. Labor productivity was improved in '60s and '80s and '90s, it has been poor since 2004. Obama (and Bush) failed to address this problem. JFK and Reagan specifically went after this problem. I never heard Trump Administration even mention this as a problem. Tax cuts won't fix this problem


If tax cuts would fix this, the Bush trillion $ tax cuts would have worked miracles on our economy. Are you still waiting for a miracle?



Monday, September 18, 2017

The Vietnam War: A film by Ken Burns and Lynn Novick


The Vietnam War: 
A film by Ken Burns and Lynn Novick

The Vietnam War is a controversial topic for the Baby Boomer generation and it will never be settled one way or the other -- it is a mixture of viewpoints, on the War, and on politics and social issues; at the root of our political divide.
They say old men send young men into war; and, so it was back then, the Greatest Generation sent their children, the Boomers, into a conflict perceived one way by the older generation that had fought "the Good War (WWII)" but with the drawing out of the Vietnam War year after year it became apparent that this was not going to be a good war. A war that was lost although American combat troops never lost one major battle (and I don't think any minor battles).
This is a period that is indicative of a generation split. The Greatest Generation was a very cohesive generation, exceptional by contrast with most prior American generations, especially in politics, having come through two momentous events, the Great Depression and WWII, with a good degree of agreeableness to move forward on a lot of issues facing the nation. The Boomers have much less cohesiveness, more like what resembles most American generations, and it is reflected in our culture and inability for major accomplishments. That baton for progress was dropped by the Boomers when it was passed off by the Greatest Generation.