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Los Angeles, California, United States
The blog 'Breaking Bread' is for a civil general discussion, like you might have at the dinner table with guests. The posts 'Economics Without the B.S.' are intended for a general audience that wouldn't have to know the difference between a Phillips Curve, a Laffer Curve, or a Cole Hamels Curve. Vic Volpe was formally educated at Penn State and the University of Scranton, with major studies in History, Economics and Finance, and Business; and, is self-educated since by way of books and on-line university courses. His practical education came from fifty years of work experience in the blue-collar trades as well as a white-collar professional career -- a white-collar professional career in production and R&D. In his professional career and as a long-haul trucker, he has traveled throughout the lower forty-eight. From his professional career alone he has visited many manufacturing plants in the United States, Europe and China. He has lived in major metropolitan areas and very small towns in various parts of the United States. He served three years with the U.S. Army as an enlisted man, much of that time in Germany.

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

Warren Buffett only gets it half right

Warren Buffett only gets it half right


Economics Without The B.S.**: 

[**  Double entendre intended.]





He is half right about the U.S. never going into default because its prints its own currency and sells bonds in its own currency -- but, Why can the U.S. borrow in its own currency when Argentina cannot?

The other half: Because the U.S. throughout its history has always been a productive nation; its productivity rate of growth has always been greater than the debt load; SO, its bonds/treasuries have always been looked upon as a risk free investment and therefore always in demand.

If there were no demand for U.S. bonds/treasuries, the United States would have a debt problem.  It is our productivity, over our long history, that fuels the demand for our assets and our currency and our debt/credit instruments.

In summary, there are four ways for the U.S. government to pay its national debt:
    1.  It can default on the debt -- the United States has never done this in its history.
    2.  It can inflate away some or all of its debt, by paying for its debt in devalued dollars.  The United States has done this in the past, but it is a very rare occasion.  Recent examples would be when FDR became president during the Great Depression and through a series of actions took the price of gold from around $22/ounce to over $30/ounce.  President Nixon also used this when he took the United States off the Bretton Woods system/gold standard and let the price of gold float rather than be fixed to the dollar ($35/ounce).
    3.  The United States can take in more revenue than it spends.  It did this in the post Andrew Jackson period up to the Civil War.  We also reduced our public debt load during Bill Clinton's administration, mainly due to the excess collections on Social Security compared to the dispensions of Social Security.


    4.  And the usual way we pay for our national debt is by rolling over the debt, that is, issuing new debt to pay the old debt.


        

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